Friday, August 11

Random Variation

 By definition, it would seem that random variation is unpredictable.  Variation is how one item differs from another and random means that it is not consistent.


If we look at the above image, we see a device that has a funnel at the top.  In the middle are a bunch of pegs.  Black balls have been dropped into the funnel and the black balls hit these pegs and bounce down until they get to the bottom.  They have dropped into cylinders and appears to have formed a pyramid shape.

This pyramid shape is what we call a BELL SHAPED curve.  This bell shaped curve will ALWAYS be form if enough black balls are dropped even though, one cannot predict which peg or how many pegs each ball will hit on its way down.

Randomness over time will always form a bell shaped curve and once we have a bell shaped curve, we can predict with 99.99997% accuracy into which cylinder the next black ball will land.

In manufacturing or in LIFE, you want your variation to be random...  random variation is predictable.  When you do not have random variation, you have chaos...  when there is chaos, one cannot predict the future.

One can measure damn near anything and everything in life and determine if it is random or not.

Some (but not all) items that can be measured;
  1. lost articles of mail
  2. short/long landings at an airport
  3. incorrect surgical operations
  4. medicines delivered to the wrong floor
  5. on time arrivals
  6. daily intact of calories or fat grams
  7. time it takes to drive to work
  8. closing the books at the end of the month
  9. time it take to make a determination on insurance claims
  10. number on monthly speeding tickets issued
  11. time spent in the grocery store
  12. time it takes to walk a mile
  13. time it takes to mow the lawn
  14. babies accidentally dropped by doctors/nurses
  15. hospital admissions wait time
  16. time it takes to change a flat tire
  17. wait time at the dentist office
  18. measuring the same dimensions of an item
  19. calibrating scales for weigh stations
  20. measuring the density of paint on a car after painting


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