Monday, February 28
Sunday, February 20
Ever Wondered???
Wednesday, December 29
Artificial Intelligence LEADER will rule the WORLD
A couple of years ago,Vladimir Putin warned Russians that the country that led in technologies using artificial intelligence will dominate the globe. He was right to be worried. Russia is now a minor player, and the race seems now to be mainly between the United States and China. But don’t count out the European Union just yet; the EU is still a fifth of the world economy, and it has underappreciated strengths. Technological leadership will require big digital investments, rapid business process innovation, and efficient tax and transfer systems. China appears to have the edge in the first, the U.S. in the second, and Western Europe in the third. One out of three won’t do, and even two out three will not be enough; whoever does all three best will dominate the rest.
We are on the cusp of colossal changes. But you don’t have to take Mr. Putin’s word for it, nor mine. This is what Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy and a serious student of the effects of digital technologies, says: “This is a moment of choice and opportunity. It could be the best 10 years ahead of us that we have ever had in human history or one of the worst, because we have more power than we have ever had before.”
To understand why this is a special time, we need to know how this wave of technologies is different from the ones that came before and how it is the same. We need to know what these technologies mean for people and businesses. And we need to know what governments can do and what they’ve been doing. With my colleagues Wolfgang Fengler, Kenan Karakülah, and Ravtosh Bal, I have been trying to whittle the research of scholars such as David Autor, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Diego Comin down to its lessons for laymen. This blog utilizes the work to forecast trends during the next decade.
It is useful to think of technical change as having come in four waves since the 1800s, brought about by a sequence of “general purpose technologies” (GPTs). GPTs are best described by economists as “changes that transform both household life and the ways in which firms conduct business.” The four most important GPTs of the last two centuries were the steam engine, electric power, information technology (IT), and artificial intelligence (AI).
All these GPTs inspired complementary innovations and changes in business processes. The robust and most relevant facts about technological progress have to do with its pace, prerequisites, and problems:
- Technological change has been getting quicker. While the pace of invention may not have accelerated, the time between invention and implementation has been shrinking. While average implementation lags are difficult to measure precisely, it would not be a gross oversimplification to say that they have been cut in half with each GPT wave. Based on the evidence, the time between invention and widespread use was cut from about 80 years for the steam engine to 40 years for electricity, and then to about 20 years for IT (Figure 1). There are reasons to believe that the implementation lag for AI-related technologies will be about 10 years. With technological change speeding up and first-mover advantages as big as they have always been, the need for large and coordinated investments is growing. READ MORE..
Tuesday, October 12
What About our Future?
Next Tuesday is off in the future. It hasn't happened yet, and you can't say what it's going to look like. Maybe it will be like today. No big deal. But maybe you'll get hit by a falling meteor on Monday and be in the intensive care ward. Bummer. Amsterdam's Central Station, however, exists now. It's just over the Atlantic Ocean, and even as you read these words people are there, scurrying to get their trains or milling about buying weird Dutch fast food (try the greasy fried rice balls ... yum!).
So Amsterdam Central Station already exists. It's just at a different point in space. But next Tuesday, which is at a different point in time, doesn't exist.
What is up with that?
For physicists like myself, this question of the difference between space and time is rock bottom, fundamental, super important. We can't really do physics without starting with some kind of theory of space and of time and of their relationship.
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Newton's giant leap forward, 400 years ago, was to think about space and time as two totally separate domains. Space was the unchanging stage on which the drama of the world played out. Time was a river that flowed at an unchanging rate through every point on that cosmic change.
The power of Newton's conception changed the world, opening the floodgate for the mechanical era and the Industrial Revolution. There was only one small problem with this idea of a separate, absolute space and time.
It was wrong.
Of Albert Einstein's many great achievements, his most profound might be the recognition that space (the location of Amsterdam Central Station) and time (the location of next Tuesday) cannot be so easily separated. And that is why next Tuesday may already exist in the same way as Amsterdam's Central Station does.
Let me tell you about your "world line."
According to Einstein's theory of relativity, the drama of the world is "played" out not on the 3-D stage of space with time acting as an unchanging metronome. Instead, reality is composed of a four-dimensional space-time. There are three dimensions of space: left/right, forward/back, up/down. And there is one dimension of time: past/future. Just as every location on the surface of the Earth already exists in space, every event that has ever happened and ever will happen already exists in space-time.
To see how freaky this idea really gets, let's consider your life for a moment. TO READ MORE ABOUT THIS CONCEPT, CLICK HERE...
Saturday, May 15
Time's Mistress
Monday, November 9
TIME: Past - Present - Future
The breeze that blows by... comes and goes but as it touches our bodies is all we know of its existence other than what we may observe but where it came from has disappeared into our past never to be seen again so we do not know for sure if the conditions that brought the breeze to us still there... or perhaps the past goes into some kind of holding dimension.
Using telescopes we can see where space came from and where it is going but that ability stops as we observe the life we are living. There will always be cars behind us on the interstate but we are all moving forward at the same relative time and even though we see a landscape behind us as we drive by, the conditions of that landscape are different than when we were just there... just as every millisecond of our present is different so too is every millisecond of our past.
SO... again... where does our past go and that it goes so fast we cannot return?
A jet stream is a visual reminder and the actual past of a fast moving aircraft as it moves into its future pausing less than a nanosecond in its present; however, the physical aircraft's past is never seen as if it never been there in the first place yet we see its reminder as it floats behind eventually dissipating.
Grave Stones are a reminder of someone's past but that is not exactly what I am talking about... I want to know where our immediate past goes when we are still alive always moving into our future... this is the question that bothers me and to which there is no easy reply and only speculative proof and our existence in our future that it actually happened at all or why we can never return.
Thursday, October 22
Living in the PRESENT
However, in my case, I have no such memories...
- I remember not my early childhood or adolescence
- I have vague memories of my deceased parents
- I remember only bits and pieces of high school and college
- I remember almost nothing of my time in the military
- I remember fragments of my working career
Monday, October 19
A BIG Think
In the block universe, there is no "now" or present. All moments that exist are just relative to each other within the three spacial dimensions and one time dimension. Your sense of the present is just reflecting where in the block universe you are at that instance. The "past" is just a slice of the universe at an earlier location while the "future" is at a later location.
Block Universe diagram. Credit: ABC Science |