Economy Coming to an End

Warren Buffett, whose economic insights are craved for Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s deep ties to the American economy, had a gloomy prediction for his own businesses: the good times may be over.

The billionaire investor expects earnings at the majority of Berkshire’s operations to fall this year as a long-predicted downturn slows economic activity. He made his comments at the conglomerate’s annual general meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, after Berkshire posted an almost 13% gain in operating earnings to $8.07 billion for the first quarter.

“The majority of our businesses will report lower earnings this year than last year,” Buffett, 92, said, before crowds of thousands at the event on Saturday. During the last six months or so, the “incredible period” for the US economy has been coming to an end, he said.

Berkshire is often seen as a proxy for economic health owing to the expansive nature of its businesses ranging from railroad to electric utilities and retail. Buffett himself has said Berkshire owes its success to the incredible growth of the US economy over the decades, but his prediction for a slowdown at his firms comes as upheaval at regional banks threatens to curtail lending as inflation and higher rates continue to bite.

Buffett’s long-time business partner Charlie Munger, 99, who joined him on stage, said the more-difficult economic environment will also make it harder for value investors, who typically buy stocks that look cheap compared to the intrinsic value of the businesses.

“Get used to making less,” Munger said.

Geico Revived
Still, Buffett said he expects earnings at its insurance underwriting operations — which are less correlated to business activity — to improve this year. Berkshire already reported higher earnings at those businesses including auto-insurer Geico, which swung to profitability following six quarters of losses.  READ MORE...

A Bermuda Triangle of Financial Risks

The economy is headed into a "Bermuda Triangle" of danger, and markets should brace for a crisis that could rival the 2008, according to economist Nouriel Roubini.

In a recent interview on the McKinsey Global Institute's "Forward Thinking" podcast, the top economist warned that the economy was risking another financial crisis as central bankers continue to tighten monetary policy.

Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates another 25 basis-points this week, and have hiked rates 475 basis-points over the last year to control inflation. That marks one of the most aggressive Fed tightening cycles in history, and could place the economy under three different kinds of stress, Roubini warned.

First, high interest rates could easily overtighten the economy into a recession, experts say, which reduces income for households and corporations.

Second, high interest rates means firms are battling higher costs of borrowing and waning liquidity, which weighs on asset prices. Last year, US stocks plunged 20% amid the Fed's rate hikes, with warnings from other market commentators of an even steeper crash in equities this year.

Finally, high interest rates are pressuring the mountain of debt, both private and public, that was amassed during the years of low rates, Roubini said. He pointed to bankrupt "zombies", which include households, corporations, and governments.

"It's got like, a Bermuda Triangle. You have a hit to your income, to your asset values, and then to the burden of financing your liabilities. And then you end up in a situation of distress if you're a highly leveraged household or business firm. And when many of them are having these problems, then you have a systemic household debt crisis like [2008]," he warned.

Roubini, one of the experts who called the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, has repeatedly sounded the alarm for another crisis to strike the US economy. The scenario he envisions combines the worst aspects of 70s-style stagflation with something like the 2008 crisis, with a severe recession, stubborn inflation, and mounting debt levels bludgeoning economic growth.   READ MORE...

Tech Companies Laying Off Workers

The job cuts in tech land are piling up, as companies that led the 10-year bull market adapt to a new reality.


Google announced plans to lay off 12,000 people from its workforce Friday, while Microsoft said Wednesday that it’s letting go of 10,000 employees. Amazon also began a fresh round of job cuts that are expected to eliminate more than 18,000 employees and become the largest workforce reduction in the e-retailer’s 28-year history.

The layoffs come in a period of slowing growth, higher interest rates to battle inflation, and fears of a possible recession next year.

Here are some of the major cuts in the tech industry so far. All numbers are approximations based on filings, public statements and media reports:

Alphabet: 12,000 jobs cut

Google, owned by parent company Alphabet, said Friday it will lay off 12,000 people from its workforce.

Sundar Pichai, Google’s CEO, said in an email sent to the company’s staff that the firm will begin making layoffs in the U.S. immediately. In other countries, the process “will take longer due to local laws and practices,” he said. CNBC reported in November that Google employees had been fearing layoffs as its counterparts made cuts and as employees saw changes to the company’s performance ratings system.

Alphabet had largely avoided layoffs until January, when it cut about 240 employees from Verily, its health sciences division.

Microsoft: 10,000 jobs cut

Microsoft is reducing 10,000 workers through March 31 as the software maker braces for slower revenue growth. The company also is taking a $1.2 billion charge.

“I’m confident that Microsoft will emerge from this stronger and more competitive,” CEO Satya Nadella announced in a memo to employees that was posted on the company website Wednesday. Some employees will find out this week if they’re losing their jobs, he wrote.

Amazon: 18,000 jobs cut

Earlier this month, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said the company was planning to lay off more than 18,000 employees, primarily in its human resources and stores divisions. It came after Amazon said in November it was looking to cut staff, including in its devices and recruiting organizations. CNBC reported at the time that the company was looking to lay off about 10,000 employees.

Amazon went on a hiring spree during the Covid-19 pandemic. The company’s global workforce swelled to more than 1.6 million by the end of 2021, up from 798,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019.   READ MORE...

Biden Says Economy is Strong

A day after President Joe Biden drew criticism from conservatives on social media for giving unsolicited dating advice to a young teen girl in California, the president is again in hot water for claiming the "economy is strong as hell."

The comment came during a conversation with a reporter at a Baskin Robbins in Portland, Oregon, who asked the president if he had any worry about the strength of the U.S. dollar amid rising inflation.

With a chocolate chip ice cream cone in his hand, Biden answered: "I’m not concerned about the strength of the dollar. I’m concerned about the rest of the world. Our economy is strong as hell."  READ MORE...

Russia's Economy is Withering

Russia's isolation from the west is a disaster for the long-term health of its economy, experts told Insider.

Trade isolation limits what Russia can import, making production more expensive.

Russia's situation will also greatly decrease its status as an energy superpower.

Russia's resilience in the face of sanctions surprised experts in the early months of the war in Ukraine, but there are growing signs that deepening isolation will result in a withered economy for years to come, and a greatly diminished standing as an energy superpower.

Since absorbing the early blows of western sanctions, Russia has largely retaliated by shutting out the west, trading exclusively with "friendly" countries, and shoring up partnerships with nations that can stomach doing business with a pariah state.  READ MORE...

Top Problem is INFLATION Since 1985

The share of Americans who rate inflation as the top issue facing the country is at the highest in nearly 40 years, according to a Gallup poll released Tuesday.

About one in five Americans, or 17%, surveyed March 1-18 cited inflation as the nation’s most important problem. That’s up from 10% in February, and compares with 4% who pointed to fuel prices in particular.

U.S. consumer prices are rising at the fastest pace in four decades, outpacing wage gains and fanned further by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Gas prices are near record highs -- well over $4 a gallon nationwide -- especially straining lower-income families.

Among those polled -- a little over 1,000 U.S. adults -- 22% say the government is the top problem outside of the economy, while 9% cited the war in Ukraine. The share citing the coronavirus fell to the lowest level since the pandemic began.

Similar to a University of Michigan survey -- which showed U.S. consumer sentiment remained at a decade low in March -- inflation concerns diverge sharply from a political perspective. Nearly 80% of Republicans are worried about inflation, more than double the proportion of Democrats, according to Gallup.   SOURCE:  Bloomberg      READ MORE...

Comeback for Turkish Lira

GETTY IMAGES,President Tayyip Erdogan built his reputation on strengthening Turkey's economy


The Turkish lira has seen a second day of dramatic gains after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unveiled a new plan aimed at strengthening the currency.


In Tuesday trading, it rose as much as 15%, after soaring 25% on Monday.


The gains came after Mr Erdogan pledged to compensate savers for currency moves that have eroded the value of bank deposits held in lira.


The currency had fallen to record lows as the rise in the country's cost of living hit 21.7%.


But at one point on Tuesday, it firmed to just over 11 to the dollar before falling back slightly.

Why currency crash does not worry Turkey's Erdogan


Despite the price rises, Mr Erdogan has pushed the central bank to keep cutting interest rates.



Last week, it reduced borrowing costs to from 15% to 14% on Thursday. It was the fourth cut in as many months.


Normally, central banks raise rates to combat rising prices, but Mr Erdogan has called such tools "the mother and father of all evil".


The president and his allies argue that lower interest rates give a boost to Turkish exports, investment and jobs. But many economists say the rate cuts are reckless.  READ MORE...

Shipping Containers

Shipping containers sit stacked at a port in Bayonne, N.J., on Oct. 15. Supply chain problems are disrupting the global economy, causing delays and a shortage of containers.Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Ah, the unassuming shipping container. It's really nothing more than a big steel box with a couple of doors. At any given time, millions of containers are piled on ships plying the world's waterways. Battered by weather and waves, they are packed with just about anything you can imagine — exotic fruits and vegetables, cheap clothing and electronics, parts for cars and trucks.

"Globalization, as we know it today, would not have been possible without the container," says Marc Levinson, an economist, a historian and the author of two books on shipping containers.

These days during the coronavirus pandemic, with the holidays fast approaching, jampacked container ships have gotten stuck in traffic at ports, which is choking the economy. Delayed containers have become both a symptom of and a contributor to global supply chain problems. But if one looks back, cargo has generally moved more easily and cheaply now than it did before these big boxes came around, making them almost indispensable to the global economy.  READ MORE...

A Recession Looms

The U.S. economy appears to be sliding into another recession based on declining consumer sentiment – even though employment and wage growth suggest otherwise, according to two academic economists.

New research published last week by David Blanchflower of Dartmouth College and Alex Bryson of the University College London suggests that consumer expectations indexes from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan tend to predict economic downturns up to 18 months in advance in the U.S.

BIDEN'S PROPOSED 39.6% TAX HIKE WOULD HIT THESE INDIVIDUALS, FAMILIES

Every recession since the 1980s has been precipitated by at least a 10-point drop in the expectations indices, they found. Other reliable indicators include a single monthly rise of at least 0.3 percentage points in unemployment and two consecutive months of employment rate declines.

"The economic situation in 2021 is exceptional, however, since unprecedented direct government intervention in the labor market through furlough-type arrangements has enabled employment rates to recover quickly from the huge downturn in 2020," Blanchflower and Bryson wrote. "However, downward movements in consumer expectations in the last six months suggest the economy in the United States is entering recession now (Autumn 2021)."

G-7 LEADERS HAMMER OUT A GLOBAL MINIMUM TAX FOR MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES

The Conference Board’s gauge of expectations declined in September to the lowest since November last year, marking the third consecutive month of declines. At the same time, the University of Michigan's gauge actually increased last month.

The economists highlighted data suggesting the Conference Board expectations peaked in March 2021 and then fell by 26 points through September 2021. The Michigan data, meanwhile, likely peaked in June 2021 and fell by 18 points by August, they found. 

TO READ MORE ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL RECESSION, CLICK HERE...

The Day Before Thanksgiving and All Is Not Well

We refer to our country as AMERICA and to its citizens as AMERICANS and while that is partially true, it is also wrong because being an AMERICAN refers to both the North, Central and South America continents...  North America is the United States and Canada.  Then we have Central America, and last but not least is South America all of whom are technically considered to be AMERICANS...

Is it not a tad ARROGANT to think of US citizens as the only AMERICANS or is it because we are a tad ignorant and don't know our history as well as we thought we did when graduating from high school?

AND...  now we are at the day before Thanksgiving and we are going to over eat and over indulge in alcohol and in those states where marijuana is legal we are going to over indulge in that as well, without the slightest consideration for the history of the holiday for the most part.

US American citizens care more about what their country can do for them rather than caring about what they can do for their country...  The more we have social programs the less that our citizens do for their country and the more we expect the wealthy to pay for our THANKSGIVING DINNERS....  which is actually a metaphorical statement as to what is happening in the US of A.

AND...  as a senior citizen...  one could say that I don't much care because of what is going to happen to you alone because by then I will be dead...  but, the more we expect our country through the wealthy to do for us, the WEAKER we as a people become.  Not weaker in terms of money or technology or healthcare but weaker MENTALLY and that MENTAL WEAKNESS will start to erode and lessen our LOYALTY to the country that gave us all we have.

ALL IS NOT WELL IN THE US of A not because we do not have the natural resources, the technology, the innovations, the freedoms, and the WEALTH but because we are losing sight of our EDUCATION and KNOWLEDGE and will soon lose our freedoms because of our bliss and military weaknesses.

• CHINA has the largest military in the world today...   the USA is second...
• INDIA has the next largest military and then there is
• NORTH KOREA...
• RUSSIA is in there somewhere but because it is no longer the USSR it is much smaller and then there is the
• MIDDLE EAST and all the rag heads in that area as US American military personnel calls them

AND...  while we think our economy is the largest in the land, we have been fooled again but our insightful leaders and the media they control because in terms of PURCHASING POWER PARITY, the largest economy in the land is now CHINA...

Please pass me another joint to have with my beer or wine or alcohol as the combination is mind blowing...  as I have been told...  and, after we finish our Thanksgiving Meal, lets ride to a fast food and get us a burger...  or, maybe some ice cream...

AND...  if that isn't enough...  check our where the USA ranks globally in terms of education K-12 and it will surprise you that we are number 15th.

AND...  if you really want another surprise and cannot wait for CHRISTMAS do a google search my friends on the FREEST COUNTRIES in the world and you will see that the USA is no longer at the top...  and yet, we are supposedly the ones who have all these freedoms...  well...  guess again...  your liberal government has gradually taken them away from you...  but go ahead and enjoy your thanksgiving...

Check out the CATO INSTITUTE and the PEW RESEARCH CENTER and articles that have been published in the CHICAGO TRIBUNE and USA TODAY and US NEWS and WORLD REPORT if you think my words are deceiving...  and, find out for yourself...  the state our States are in while we over eat, over drink, and get chilled out on marijuana...  the more we give US citizens in the way of social programs, the more the lull them to sleep in beds of ignorance.

Increase of Taxes is Coming

Under President Trump, our economy became not just the strongest economy in the world, but was the strongest economy in the history of the USA...  no one will ever, at least so far, will be able to make that claim at least no one in the near future...

This COVID-19 Pandemic has now DESTROYED this fantastic economy built by Trump and the Americans who will be voting this year in the November Election could possibly blame the failed economy not on COVID-19 or China but on President Trump and remove him from office...

While this is the Democratic Right of the Majority, it could be the worst decision ever made by the American Public.

One of the reasons why our economy has been so great is because Trump removed many government restrictions and regulations that were preventing businesses and industries from developing substantial growth plans and goals in their short term strategic plans.

Democrats will put these restrictions and regulations back on business and industry...

This decision coupled with a slow growing economy as a result of COVID-19 will put the economy of the USA in a NON AGGRESSIVE posture that will impact our economy from rebounding in 12-18 months to rebounding in 24-30 months perhaps longer...  and perhaps, never returning to the level of growth that the Trump Administration had achieved.

Yes...   this is a personal opinion...
Yes...  I am not an economic expert...
Yes...  I am not a spokesperson for business and industry...



From a LOGICAL Point-of-view:
     1.  Democrats want higher taxes not lower taxes
     2.  Democrats favor the worker not the employer
     3.  Democrats want to increase Socialist Benefits

Opening the Economy

CAN AMERICANS BE TRUSTED TO DO WHAT IS RIGHT???


We assume that our LEADERS will do what is right


We assume that our MINISTERS/PASTORS/PRIESTS will do what is right


We assume that our SPOUSES and CHILDREN will do what is right


BUT,
we CANNOT assume that our fellow citizens will do what is right as opposed to doing what they want to do or feel like they need to do...

Being from East TN, it is obvious that our State was not hit as hard as other States or other Cities with COVID-19 but that does not give our citizens the RIGHT not to protect themselves or protect the rest of us by their inappropriate behaviors...

Yet, that is exactly what they do.

When watching FOX NEWS, we hear that all sorts of Americans are violating the Stay-at-Home Orders in many States because they do not like to he told what to do...  and, in some instances they are protesting...

SO,
what are the ODDS that AMERICANS will again violate the rules and guidelines if we open up the economy again???

We have no assurances!

And, that is the HUGE downside of being an American and living in AMERICA...   we always seem to do what we WANT rather than do what is RIGHT...