NATO Countries Not Going Into Ukraine

France’s suggestion that Ukraine’s allies could potentially send ground troops into Ukraine has caused indignation and outrage in Russia, with officials warning it could provoke a direct conflict between Russia and NATO member states.

Eyebrows were raised Monday when French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that European heads of state and Western officials, who met in Paris on Monday, had talked about the possibility of sending ground troops into Ukraine.


“There is no consensus today to officially, openly, and with endorsement, send troops on the ground. But in terms of dynamics, nothing should be ruled out. We will do everything necessary to ensure that Russia cannot win this war,” Macron said at a news conference Monday evening. READ MORE...

Ukraine Building FOUR Nuclear Reactors

KYIV, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Ukraine expects to start construction work on four new nuclear power reactors this summer or autumn, Energy Minister German Galushchenko told Reuters on Thursday, as the country seeks to compensate for lost energy capacity due to the war with Russia.

Two of the units - which include reactors and related equipment - will be based on Russian-made equipment that Ukraine wants to import from Bulgaria, while the other two will use Western technology from power equipment maker Westinghouse.   READ MORE...

The Unusual

BBC | Zaria Gorvett. Tyrian purple was the most valuable color in the world for hundreds of years until its recipe vanished. Using ancient clues, one man embarked on a 16-year quest to resurrect this legendary dye. (Read)

Atavist | Lily Hyde. The story of three Ukrainian women from two generations of the same family who all became pregnant a few weeks apart, before a war came between them. (Read)

EU Membership for Ukraine

"The Commission recommends that the (EU) Council opens accession negotiations with Ukraine," said the Brussels-based European Commission.

It added the talks should formally be launched once Kyiv satisfied remaining conditions related to stepping up fight against corruption, adopting a law on lobbying in line with EU standards and strengthening national minority safeguards.

The recommendation is an important milestone on Kyiv's road to Western integration and a geo-political gambit for the EU as Ukraine has been fighting against a large-scale Russian invasion since February 2022.  READ MORE...

War Continues in Ukraine

The latest developments from the Ukraine war.

Zelenskyy rules out wartime elections

“Now is not the time for elections,” Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday, trying to put to rest a growing debate amid Russia's grinding invasion.

"Now is the time for defence, for battle, on which the fate of the state and people depends, and not for farce, which only Russia expects from Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in a speech. "I think this is not the time for elections.

“We must come together, not divide ourselves, not disperse ourselves in quarrels or other priorities,” he added.   READ MORE...

Russia Loses 1000 Troops a day in Ukraine

The Ukrainian military on Sunday claimed to have killed nearly 1,000 more Russian soldiers as the conflict in the war-torn country continues.

Russian President Vladimir Putin first began his "special military operation" on Ukraine in February 2022 based on dubious claims of mistreatment of ethnic Russian residents and that the Ukrainian government was being run by Nazis, even though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a native Russian speaker of Jewish heritage. 

The Eastern European country responded, however, with a stronger-than-expected defense effort, bolstered by Western aid, that has blunted Russian military gains.  READ MORE...

Russia Recruits Women for Mercenary Group in Ukraine

Women have rarely taken frontline fighting roles within the Ukraine war until now.

A Russian mercenary group is attempting to recruit women for combat roles in Ukraine, according to the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD).

In its daily intelligence briefing for Monday, the MoD said that Redut - a state-backed private military company - is appealing for women to work as snipers and drone operators in its Borz Battalion.

Redut - formerly known as Shield - has links to the GRU, Russia's foreign intelligence agency.  READ MORE...

Ukrainian Calls Russian Tank Tech Support for Help

In the 20 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, the Ukrainian army has captured around 200 of Russia’s T-72B3 tanks.

The T-72B3, a product of Uralvagonzavod in Nizhny Tagil, is one of Russia’s newer tanks. And unlike, say, the T-64BV, the T-80U or the T-72AMT, Ukrainian industry doesn’t have much experience with the type.

So when a Ukrainian tanker with the callsign “Kochevnik” ran into problems with his captured Russian T-72B3—problems local expertise couldn’t immediately solve—he called Uralvagonzavod tech support. And incredibly, the help line actually helped.

Militarnyi captured Kochevnik’s calls on video.

Kochevnik serves in the Ukrainian army’s 54th Mechanized Brigade, which fights around Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine and operates mostly Soviet-vintage equipment including T-64 tanks and BMP fighting vehicles. It also owns some of Ukraine’s ex-Russian T-72B3s.

Kochevnik was trolling the Russians, mostly. But his gripes with his 45-ton, three-person tank were real. The tank had been spewing oil. Its compressors weren’t working. The electrical turret-rotation mechanism kept failing, forcing the crew to rotate the turret with a hand crank.  READ MORE...

Drone Attacks on Russia

Dwindling military resources and a dearth of new targets have left Russian President Vladimir Putin struggling to respond to a rise of troubling drone attacks on Moscow.

Several analysts have noted in recent days that Putin has attempted to downplay dramatic attacks on the Russian capital – for which Ukraine has explicitly denied any responsibility, at least publicly. 

The attacks have gained widespread attention on social media, particularly in Russia, with some observers suggesting that they were the result of a false-flag operation orchestrated by the Kremlin to force national support for a new round of military conscriptions it likely needs.

Yet Putin’s response appears to discount that theory.

Instead of maximizing the attacks for propaganda purposes, the Russian leader’s reaction appears to be an attempt “to avoid exposing the limited options he has to retaliate against Ukraine,” the independent Institute for the Study of War concludes in a new analysis note.

The analysis points to Putin’s explanation earlier this week that Russian forces struck the Ukrainian military intelligence headquarters two or three days previously.  READ MORE...

Stunning Collapse of US Dollar

(Kitco News) Markets need to pay closer attention to the de-dollarization trend since the greenback is losing its power as a reserve currency faster than many analysts are noticing, according to Stephen Jen, CEO and co-CIO of Eurizon SLJ Capital.

The dollar's loss of its reserve currency status accelerated last year when the greenback was used against Moscow as part of the sanction package after Russia invaded Ukraine. In 2022, the USD's share as a global reserve currency fell at ten times the average pace of the past 20 years, Jen said in a report.

"The dollar suffered a stunning collapse in 2022 in its market share as a reserve currency, presumably due to its muscular use of sanctions," Jen wrote. "Exceptional actions taken by the U.S. and its allies against Russia have startled large reserve-holding countries, most of which are from the Global South."

According to Jen's calculations, the greenback's share of official global reserve currencies dropped from 73% in 2001 to about 55% in 2021. And in 2022, it tumbled to 47% of total global reserves.

Coordinated sanctions against Russia alerted many countries, pushing them to seek currency alternatives — for trade settlements and reserve build-up.

"It seems reasonable to speculate that the main driver of the collapse in USD's reserve status in 2022 may have reflected a panicked reaction to property rights being jeopardised. What we witnessed in 2022 was sort of a 'defund-the-global-police' moment, whereby many reserve managers in the world disagreed with the conduct of both Russia and the U.S.," the note said.  READ MORE...

Until It Feels The Pain

[Patrick Gathara/Al Jazeera]

If there is anything that has been true in the history of the world, it is that states, and especially Western states, rarely if ever act out of a sense of moral compulsion, when such acts could impose hardships back home. Look at the rhetoric around support for Ukraine following the Russian invasion as an example.

While the conflict has been presented in starkly moralistic terms, as the West helping brave Ukraine stand up to Russian bullies, it has been clear that moralism can be quickly discarded in the face of discomfort for their citizens. The prospect of cold European homes and high prices motivated the European Union to leave a myriad of loopholes in its sanctions to allow for the flow of Russian gas and oil to continue. When Russian gas was cut off, European governments did not hesitate to reach out to various fossil fuel-rich autocrats they otherwise regularly criticise for their dismal human rights record.

As Africans learned long ago during the Cold War, global powers are more than happy to wage supposed wars of principle on other peoples’ lands, sacrificing other peoples’ welfare but not their own.

The same dynamic is evident in the narratives and proposals that were tabled at the latest United Nations Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Lots of the talk was about helping the unfortunately-situated “Global South” cope with the ravages of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, and helping them transition into greener sources of energy.

Like during the Cold War, the West is actively theatre-shopping, recruiting countries to serve as arenas for its climate fight. Switzerland, for example, plans to cut its greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030, not by actually reducing them, which might require inconveniencing its citizens, but by paying countries like Ghana to reduce its emissions and give it credit.

The idea would be for the Swiss government to pay for efficient lighting and cleaner stoves to be installed in Ghanaian households and claim the resulting reduction in emissions as its own. Switzerland is not the only Western nation to use such carbon-offsetting schemes, which displace climate action from rich polluting nations and frame poorer nations that have contributed little to the crisis as the ones that need to change the most.  READ MORE...

Russians Against Putin

It only took a few hours after Russia’s Vladimir Putin hailed his mobilization as a sparkling success Friday for a torrent of humiliating reports to emerge that suggest the war effort has been more successful in turning the country against him than defeating mythical Nazis in Ukraine.

The most staggering contradiction to the Russian president’s boastful claims came perhaps in Kazan, where dozens of drafted troops were captured on video late Friday berating military leadership outside a collection point for the newly mobilized.

The angry crowd complained of a lack of water, food, and “rusty” rifles from the 1970s that one soldier said were too “dangerous” to even use, according to local outlets. Spectacularly, the troops were not cowed by a military officer who threatened to call in riot police.  READ MORE...

Russia Deciding to Use Nuclear in Ukraine

Senior Russian military commanders recently discussed how and when the Kremlin would use tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) in Ukraine, The New York Times reported on Wednesday.


According to the report, President Vladimir Putin was not part of the conversation. Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said on Tuesday that there were no indications that the Russian leader "has made a decision at this time to employ nuclear weapons."


Also on Tuesday, Security Council of the Russian Federation deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on Telegram that Kyiv's objectives to return all occupied territories to its control constituted an existential threat to Russia and would allow for the use of nuclear weapons.  READ MORE...

Russian Elites & Putin

Friends, rivals and enemies took their seats in the Grand Kremlin Palace as Vladimir Putin gathered the country’s elite to formalise Russia’s illegal annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine.

The ceremony was meant to portray strength and unity, but within 24 hours had been overshadowed by Russia’s failures on the battlefield. These losses, which continued into this week on the southern and eastern fronts in Ukraine, have led to a major, unprecedented rupture within the ruling class as the Kremlin seeks scapegoats for a series of military embarrassments.

The following account is based on 15 interviews with former government and defence officials, members of the military, political observers, journalists, opposition members, and an inmate at a prison where Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin recruited soldiers to join his mercenary group in Ukraine.                READ MORE...

Ukraine Pushes Russis out ofo Donetsk

Kyiv, Ukraine CNN—Russian forces retreated from Lyman, a strategic city for its operations in the east, the Russian defense ministry said Saturday, just a day after Moscow’s annexation of the region that’s been declared illegal by the West.

“In connection with the creation of a threat of encirclement, allied troops were withdrawn from the settlement of Krasny Liman to more advantageous lines,” the ministry said on Telegram, using the Russian name for the town of Lyman.

The retreat marks Ukraine’s most significant gain since its successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region last month.  READ MORE...

Russia's Economy is Withering

Russia's isolation from the west is a disaster for the long-term health of its economy, experts told Insider.

Trade isolation limits what Russia can import, making production more expensive.

Russia's situation will also greatly decrease its status as an energy superpower.

Russia's resilience in the face of sanctions surprised experts in the early months of the war in Ukraine, but there are growing signs that deepening isolation will result in a withered economy for years to come, and a greatly diminished standing as an energy superpower.

Since absorbing the early blows of western sanctions, Russia has largely retaliated by shutting out the west, trading exclusively with "friendly" countries, and shoring up partnerships with nations that can stomach doing business with a pariah state.  READ MORE...

Wars Are Hard to Stop

Ukrainian gunners prepare to fire with a self-propelled rocket launcher near a front line in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on Aug. 27. ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
AUGUST 29, 2022, 12:00 PM



I’ve written several columns on important foreign-policy ideas that national leaders forget at their peril, such as the balance of power, nationalism, and the security dilemma. This week, I’m offering up another one, a simple observation that every world leader or foreign-policy advisor ought to have prominently displayed on their desk, on their office wall, or maybe just tattooed on the inside of their eyelids so they don’t ever, ever forget it: “It’s much easier to start a war than to end it.”

Illustrations of this phenomenon are ubiquitous. As Geoffrey Blainey described in his classic book The Causes of War, many past conflicts were fueled by “dreams and delusions of a coming war,” and especially the belief that it would be quick, it would be cheap, and it would yield a decisive victory. 

In 1792, for example, the armies of Austria-Hungary, Prussia, and France all rushed to the battlefield believing the war would be resolved after a battle or two. The French radicals thought their recent revolution would quickly spread to others, and the opposing monarchies believed the revolutionary armies were an incompetent rabble that their professional soldiers would easily sweep aside. What they got instead was nearly a quarter-century of recurring warfare that dragged in all the major powers and spread around the globe.

Similarly, in August 1914, the nations of Europe marched off to war saying the soldiers would be home by Christmas, blissfully unaware that the anticipated Christmas homecoming wouldn’t take place until 1918. 

Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein succumbed to much the same illusion in 1980, believing that the 1979 revolution had left Iran vulnerable to an Iraqi attack. The resulting war lasted eight years, and the two states suffered hundreds of thousands of deaths and vast economic damage before calling it quits.

Even highly successful military campaigns often lead not to quick victories but to interminable quagmires. The 1967 Six-Day War lasted less than a week, but it resolved none of the underlying political issues between Israel and its neighbors and merely set the stage for the more costly War of Attrition (1969-1970) and the October War in 1973. 

Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982 was a near-total success militarily, but the resulting occupation of southern Lebanon lasted 18 years, cost hundreds of lives, led to the creation of Hezbollah, and laid the groundwork for several even more costly clashes. 

One would be hard-pressed to find a more successful military operation than Operation Desert Storm in 1991, but Saddam managed to cling to power after his army was ousted from Kuwait, and the United States ended up patrolling no-fly zones over Iraq and conducting occasional aerial attacks for another decade.  READ MORE...

Hire Ukrainians Instead of Americans

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman (right) has advocated for U.S. companies to hire Ukrainians who are "grateful" over Americans who allegedly do not work as hard.

In a Tuesday tweet, the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management said he had dinner with a number of startup CEOs who had complained about the work ethic of young American engineers. He suggested that employers should instead look to hiring people from Ukraine as Russia's invasion of the country continues.

"Tonight I had dinner with 15 startup CEOs who bemoaned the work ethic of young US engineers, particularly compared with those from emerging countries," Ackman wrote. "Idea: recruit engineers from @Ukraine. They are extremely talented, hard working and grateful, and you will be doing good."

Ackman's comments come as the COVID-19 pandemic's Great Resignation saw record numbers of people in the U.S. quitting their jobs, with many young people taking advantage of the labor shortage to seek roles that provide an attractive work-life balance and better pay and benefits.  READ MORE...

Germany Roadblock for Russian Sanctions

WARSAW, April 4 (Reuters) - Germany is the main roadblock to imposing tougher sanctions on Russia, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Monday during a news conference, adding that Hungary was not blocking them.

His comment comes after Prime Minister Viktor Orban won a national election on Sunday after facing criticism over an insufficiently tough stance on Russian aggression in Ukraine.

"We have to see that, regardless of how we approach Hungary, this is the fourth such win and we have to respect democratic elections ... it's Germany that is the main roadblock on sanctions. Hungary is for the sanctions," Morawiecki said.

FRANKFURT/BRUSSELS, March 8 (Reuters) - Russia has warned it may shut off its main Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany after Berlin halted approval of a second line across the Baltic Sea in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. read more

The comment, from Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak, reflects escalating tensions that have already sent European gas prices to record levels.

Russia is Germany's top supplier, delivering Europe's largest economy with just under a third of its gas.

Here are key details about Germany's gas sector.

GAS IMPORTS

Germany imported 142 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2021, down 6.4% from 2020, according to foreign trade statistics office BAFA, which does not identify the origin of imports.

Domestic gas usage was 100 bcm in 2021, utility industry group BDEW said.

Russian piped gas led imports in December at 32% of supply followed by Norway at 20% and Netherlands at 12%, data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) showed.  READ MORE...

Friends in High Places

(CNN)After weeks of failing to divide Europe over his war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin enjoyed two small diplomatic victories this weekend.

In both Hungary and Serbia, openly pro-Russian parties comfortably won legislative elections, providing Putin with a welcome reminder that despite the international community's firm and largely united response to the invasion, he does have some friends to his west.

The most significant victory came in the form of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his nationalist Fidesz party winning a landslide. Hungary is a member of both the European Union and NATO, meaning Putin can claim to have a friend with seats at the top table of two of his most-hated institutions.

On Sunday night, during his victory speech, Orban goaded not only the EU but Ukraine.

"We have such a victory it can be seen from the moon, but it's sure that it can be seen from Brussels," he said, adding that Fidesz "will remember this victory until the end of our lives because we had to fight against a huge amount of opponents." Included in that list of opponents were Brussels bureaucrats, international media and, pointedly, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky.

Zelensky has directly criticized Orban for failing to support Ukraine as enthusiastically as many of his European counterparts have over the past weeks.  READ MORE...