Our US Electric Grid

CNN: As heat ramps up ahead of what forecasters say will be a hotter than normal summer, electricity experts and officials are warning that states may not have enough power to meet demand in the coming months. And many of the nation’s grid operators are also not taking climate change into account in their planning, even as extreme weather becomes more frequent and more severe.

All of this suggests that more power outages are on the way, not only this summer but in the coming years as well.

Power operators in the Central US, in their summer readiness report, have already predicted “insufficient firm resources to cover summer peak forecasts.” That assessment accounted for historical weather and the latest NOAA outlook that projects for more extreme weather this summer.

But energy experts tell CNN that some power grid operators are not considering how the climate crisis is changing our weather — including more frequent extreme events — and that is a problem if the intent is to build a reliable power grid.

“The reality is the electricity system is old and a lot of the infrastructure was built before we started thinking about climate change,” said Romany Webb, a researcher at Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. “It’s not designed to withstand the impacts of climate change.”

Webb says many power grid operators use historical weather to make investment decisions, rather than the more dire climate projections, simply because they want to avoid the possibility of financial loss for investing in what might happen versus what has already happened. She said it’s the wrong approach and it makes the grid vulnerable.  READ MORE...

Colder Than Expected

The latest Winter season 2021/2022 forecast update shows a stronger influence of the now mature La Nina phase. It will modify the jet stream pattern over North America and the Pacific Ocean, extending its reach also to the rest of the world. 

The final Winter forecast from major weather models captures the changing jet stream position during winter, showing us the most likely weather outcome this season.

To try and understand the Winter season and its forecast, we must realize that there are many “drivers” when it comes to weather. Global weather is a very complex system, with many large-scale and small-scale climate influencers. 

We will first look at what this La Nina really is and how it will influence the Winter season of 2021/2022.

Below we have an example of a pressure pattern in a perfect winter scenario for both the United States and Europe. A blocking high-pressure over Greenland and North Pacific, with low pressure and colder air for the United States and Europe. 

This is what every winter fan in Europe and the United States hopes for every winter. But we will see if we can find anything similar in the final Winter 2021/2022 forecast.  READ MORE...

Boiling Frog Phenomenon

The world is getting dangerously hot. Storms have been ferocious. Whole land masses are disappearing. Have you noticed this incredibly bad weather of late?

Not fully, scientists say. New research demonstrates a terrifying adaptability of 21st century human beings: in the face of unprecedented climate change, we are normalising the weather temperatures, and not realising how truly bad things have become.

There's a famous analogue for this phenomenon; one that's both fitting and frightening. It's called the boiling frog effect – the notion that a frog immersed in gradually heating water will fail to notice the creeping change in its circumstances, even as it's literally being boiled alive.

Contemporary scientists no longer subscribe to this now discredited observation, but as a metaphor for the way in which humans are sailing unfazed into a dire-looking future of irreversible climate change, it's perfectly apt.

"This is a true boiling-frog effect," says climate scientist Frances C. Moore from the University of California, Davis.

"People seem to be getting used to changes they'd prefer to avoid. But just because they're not talking about it doesn't mean it's not making them worse off."

Moore and her team sampled over two billion geo-located tweets between March 2014 and November 2016, measuring the sentiment in public posts about weather, and cross-referencing them with localised temperatures, and comparing them against a baseline reference of weather data from 1981 to 1990.

Basically, they were looking for how people reacted to significant changes in localised weather conditions, to determine what kinds of weather people find normal or unusual.  READ MORE

East TN Living

Today, if you were to watch your local news or weather channel or check out the weather channel on cable or dish, you would discover that the temperatures are going to be in the HIGH 90's in the south from Texas curving around through Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina...   but because of the GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS the hot temperatures WILL NOT PENETRATE into the Voluteer State of Tennessee...  specifically east TN where I am living...

NOW...  that is not to say that we don't get hot temperatures in the 90's because we do...  and we had those temperatures here for the last two weeks, and the only good thing about those temps for me was the fact that I did not have to mow the lawn or weedeat and I could remain inside where it was cool cooking on my electric portable stovetop and watch programs on ROKU, HULU, and NETFLIX...

I am CABLE and DISH FREE...

I have a fiber optic WIFI connection to the internet and my telephone communications are done via cell phones not a landline any longer...  it is almost as satisfying as the day I became completely DEBT FREE...

Approaching Conclusions

🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞

As we begin this week, we are also approaching the end of another month...  the month of February...  and, the reason why that is important, at least to me, is the fact that once the month of February has passed, cold weather in East TN is all but gone; in fact, according to a forecast for the month of March, weather in East TN will ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50'S AND LOWER 60'S...

While this may not be important to others...  it is important to me because the older I get the less I enjoy cold weather.  And, the interesting part here is that while I cannot stay out in the sunlight because of health concerns, warm weather (even in the shade) is preferable to cold weather in a heated house.

As we approach the conclusion of the month of February, my age has put me in the category where I was able to get the first of two COVID VACCINE shots at my local health department.  My second one is a couple of weeks away and my vaccine is the Moderna Vaccine which has a good reliability factor.

However, that does not mean that I will stop wearing my face mask in public because I believe face masks and limited capacity at restaurants is now part of our future and is here to stay...  especially in doctor's offices, hospitals, and many public places were people congregate in numbers...  and, not just to prevent variations of COVID from spreading but to prevent all sorts of flu type viruses from spreading.

As we approach the beginning of a new Presidential Administration, we have an opportunity to explore the following:

• Distribution of COVID Vaccines
• Deal with potential increases in immigration
• Deal with increases in taxes
• Deal with the end of oil and gas as energy sources
• Deal with an increase in our national debt
• Deal with China as an economic and military adversary
• Deal with an increase in terrorism
• Deal with defunded police departments
• Deal with the effects/affects of going GREEN

As the approach the beginning of a new political era/climate and the conclusion of the old political climate, I constantly remind myself that I am RETIRED and whatever happens in the United States, actually impacts my life very little...

A Rainy Day

According to the WEATHER PERSON (trying to be politically correct here) for the East Tennessee Area, we should be expecting rain(off and on) for the rest of the week and maybe a few days longer if the 10-Day Forecasting is accurate.  Ordinarily, I would not be bothered by rain and would encourage its presence I am, during these months of Spring, Summer, and Fall, keenly aware of having to mow the damn grass and while our yard can be mowed in about an hour, it's a pain-in-the-ass to try and mow it in between bouts of rain without letting it properly dry out.

On the positive side of a week of rain, our above ground pool actually relishes the idea of rain because the rain's freshness dilutes the buildup of bad chemicals in the water like chlorine and the stuff that was used to winterize it last fall.  As long as the rain is falling gradually, I can still easily remove the excess water by putting the pool pump on WASTE and if I hookup the hose can also easily vacuum out of the pool any debris on its floor that has settled since the last time I vacuumed.

Yard and Pool Maintenance is relatively easy if one has the proper tools to complete each task...  in my case, I need only a hose, pole, and vacuum device as well as a riding lawn mower...

Personally, I like the rain...  I like the sounds it makes...  I like the relaxing peacefulness it creates...  and, I like how beautiful everything looks afterwards.