Boosting Domestic Uranium Production

The U.S. and Europe face challenges with uranium supply due to dependence on Russian imports and global shortages.

The U.S. is advancing in high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) production with projects like Centrus Energy Corp's facility in Ohio.

The U.K. plans to invest in developing HALEU production capabilities for its next-generation nuclear reactors.

There is great potential for several new uranium production markets as the U.S. and Europe look to diversify away from Russia for new nuclear energy pursuits. The U.S. and several European countries have announced ambitious nuclear power plans for the coming decades, in support of a green transition. 

However, the lack of uranium production outside of Russia is posing a threat to achieving these plans. Sanctions introduced on Russian energy and other products, following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, have led to global shortages of natural gas, uranium, and other critical materials. 

This has driven several state powers to diversify their supply chains and increase the regional production of a variety of energy sources and related materials. This means we could soon see new uranium-producing markets emerge in Europe and the U.S.  READ MORE...

India is Growing its Economy

India is poised to become the world’s second-largest economy by 2075, leapfrogging not just Japan and Germany, but the U.S., too, says Goldman Sachs.

Currently, India is the world’s fifth-largest economy, behind Germany, Japan, China and the U.S.

On top of a burgeoning population, driving the forecast is the country’s progress in innovation and technology, higher capital investment, and rising worker productivity, the investment bank wrote in a recent report.

“Over the next two decades, the dependency ratio of India will be one of the lowest among regional economies,” said Goldman Sachs Research’s India economist, Santanu Sengupta.

A country’s dependency ratio is measured by the number of dependents against the total working-age population. A low dependency ratio indicates that there are proportionally more working-age adults who are able to support the youth and elderly.

Sengupta added that the key to drawing out the potential of India’s rapidly growing population is to boost the participation of its labor force. And Sengupta forecasts that India will have one of the lowest dependency ratios among large economies for the next 20 years.

“So that really is the window for India to get it right in terms of setting up manufacturing capacity, continuing to grow services, continuing the growth of infrastructure,” he said.

India’s government has placed a priority on infrastructure creation, especially in the setting up of roads and railways. The country’s recent budget aims to continue the 50-year interest-free loan programs to state governments in order to spur investments in infrastructure.

Goldman Sachs believes that this is an appropriate time for the private sector to scale up on creating capacity in manufacturing and services in order to generate more jobs and absorb the large labor force.  READ MORE...

Tons of Cocaine Floating Around in Pacific Ocean

New Zealand authorities have recovered 3.2 tonnes of cocaine, worth more than $300 million, found floating in the Pacific Ocean and believed to be bound for Australia.  Police said the haul of 81 bales, which was drifting hundreds of kilometres northwest of New Zealand, was recovered in a joint operation with the New Zealand Customs Service and Defence Force acting on intelligence from the Five Eyes alliance, which also includes Australia, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.

“This is the largest find of illicit drugs by New Zealand’s agencies by some margin,” said Commissioner of New Zealand Police Andrew Coster.  Officials believe the drugs were dropped at a “floating transit point” in the Pacific Ocean where they would have been picked up and taken to Australia.  “We believe it was destined for Australia, where it would have been enough to service the market for one year,” Coster said.  “It is more than New Zealand would use in 30 years.”

A police photo showed the massive haul was bound by netting and covered in yellow floats. Some of the bales had a Batman symbol on them, with the packages of cocaine inside labelled with what appeared to be a print of a four-leaf clover.  Coster described the bust as a “huge result” for police in both New Zealand and Australia.  “There is no doubt this discovery lands a major financial blow right from the South American producers through to the distributors of this product,” he added.  Officials said it was too early to say where the drugs came from.

In Case You Missed It - Amazon to Layoff 18,000

Amazon has announced it will cut more than 18,000 jobs from its workforce, citing “the uncertain economy” and the fact that it had “hired rapidly” during the pandemic.

“Between the reductions we made in November and the ones we’re sharing today, we plan to eliminate just over 18,000 roles,” said CEO Andy Jassy in a statement to his staff. The company had announced 10,000 layoffs in November.

The jobs to be slashed under the plan amount to 6 percent of Amazon’s roughly 300,000-person corporate workforce, the largest among recent workforce reductions that have impacted the US tech sector.

Jassy said the company’s leadership was “deeply aware that these role eliminations are difficult for people, and we don’t take these decisions lightly.

“We are working to support those who are affected and are providing packages that include a separation payment, transitional health insurance benefits, and external job placement support,” he said.

Some of the layoffs would be in Europe, Jassy said, adding that the impacted workers would be informed starting on January 18.  READ MORE...

US In War With China Predicted for 2025

In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, fighter jets of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) conduct a joint combat training exercises around the Taiwan Island on Aug. 7, 2022. (Gong Yulong/Xinhua via AP)

A four-star Air Force General on Friday predicted in a memo to his officers that the U.S. will be at war with China by 2025 and advised his commanders to prepare, a report by NBC News said.

Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, in a memo to all air wing commanders and other Air Force operational commanders said, "I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me [we] will fight in 2025."

Minihan said he believes war with China is imminent in the next two years due to the upcoming 2024 elections in the U.S. and Taiwan, which he claimed will "distract" Washington and Taipei and enable China to make a move on the island.


The general said a "a fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain" needs to be established to prepare for the looming fight.

Minihan directed his Air Force commanders to report back by Feb. 28 on steps they will take to prepare for the war against China.

He also said all personnel should ensure their records and emergency contact information are up-to-date and to "consider their personal affairs and whether a visit should be scheduled with their servicing base legal office to ensure they are legally ready and prepared."

The general reportedly urged his fighting forces to "run deliberately, not recklessly," but said they need to accept some risk in training.  READ MORE...

Tesla Turns Up The Heat

Jan 13 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has slashed prices globally on its electric vehicles by as much as 20%, extending an aggressive discounting effort and challenging rivals after missing Wall Street delivery estimates for 2022.

The move marks a reversal from the automaker's strategy over the last two years when new vehicle orders exceeded supply. It comes after CEO Elon Musk warned that the prospect of recession and higher interest rates meant it could lower prices to sustain growth at the expense of profit.

Musk acknowledged last year that prices had become "embarrassingly high" and could hurt demand. Shares were down 2.6% on Friday, following the stock's worst year since its inception due to delivery issues and growing competition.

Tesla lowered prices across the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, following a series of cuts last week in Asia, in what analysts saw as a clear shot at both smaller rivals that have been bleeding cash and legacy automakers aggressively ramping up electric vehicle production.  READ MORE...

Future of Religion in USA

Since the 1990s, large numbers of Americans have left Christianity to join the growing ranks of U.S. adults who describe their religious identity as atheist, agnostic or “nothing in particular.” This accelerating trend is reshaping the U.S. religious landscape, leading many people to wonder what the future of religion in America might look like.

What if Christians keep leaving religion at the same rate observed in recent years? What if the pace of religious switching continues to accelerate? What if switching were to stop, but other demographic trends – such as migration, births and deaths – were to continue at current rates? To help answer such questions, Pew Research Center has modeled several hypothetical scenarios describing how the U.S. religious landscape might change over the next half century.

The Center estimates that in 2020, about 64% of Americans, including children, were Christian. People who are religiously unaffiliated, sometimes called religious “nones,” accounted for 30% of the U.S. population. Adherents of all other religions – including Jews, Muslims, Hindus and Buddhists – totaled about 6%

Depending on whether religious switching continues at recent rates, speeds up or stops entirely, the projections show Christians of all ages shrinking from 64% to between a little more than half (54%) and just above one-third (35%) of all Americans by 2070. Over that same period, “nones” would rise from the current 30% to somewhere between 34% and 52% of the U.S. population.  READ MORE...

US China Chip War

The US is rapidly ramping up efforts to try to hobble China's progress in the semiconductor industry - vital for everything from smartphones to weapons of war.

In October, Washington announced some of the broadest export controls yet - requiring licences for companies exporting chips to China using US tools or software, no matter where they're made in the world.

Washington's measures also prevent US citizens and green card holders from working for certain Chinese chip companies. Green card holders are US permanent residents who have the right to work in the country.

It is cutting off a key pipeline of American talent to China which will affect the development of high-end semiconductors.

Why is the US doing this?

Advanced chips are used to power supercomputers, artificial intelligence and military hardware.

The US says China's use of the technology poses a threat to its own national security.

Alan Estevez, undersecretary at the US Commerce Department announced the rules, saying his intention was to ensure the US was doing everything it could to prevent "sensitive technologies with military applications" from being acquired by China.

"The threat environment is always changing and we are updating our policies today to make sure we're addressing the challenges," he said.

Meanwhile, China has called the controls "technology terrorism".

Countries in Asia that produce chips - such as Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea - have raised concerns about how this bitter battle is affecting the global supply chain.

And there were three significant developments in the chip conflict over the past week.  READ MORE...

Brittney Griner Declines Basketball

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - OCTOBER 10: Brittney Griner #42 of the Phoenix Mercury prepares for game 1 of the WNBA Finals at Footprint Center on October 10, 2021 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Mattina/Getty Images)

Brittney Griner reportedly made a tough decision in prison.

The WNBA star has been sentenced to nine years in a Russian prison on drug charges. Griner, who was playing overseas in Russia, was arrested at the airport when drugs were allegedly found in her backpack.

While the United States government is attempting to bring her home via a prisoner trade, Russia does not appear to be anxious to get something done.

According to ESPN's T.J. Quinn, Griner's lawyers offered to bring her a basketball in prison, though she reportedly declined the offer.

"I asked Griner's lawyer if she's had an opportunity to play basketball since she was detained. She said the jail has a hoop, but no ball. When Griner's lawyers offered to bring one, BG declined, saying it was too painful to think about," he reported.  READ MORE...

Long COVID

Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey 2022; Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals

Of the nearly 24 million adults in the U.S. who currently have long COVID, more than 80% are having some trouble carrying out daily activities, according to CDC data released Wednesday.

Why it matters: Nearly three years into a pandemic that has left millions newly disabled, medical researchers continue to search for an effective treatment.

The big picture: Long COVID symptoms can include shortness of breath, cognitive difficulties and symptoms that worsen even with minimal physical or mental effort — a primary indicator of chronic fatigue syndrome.

The pandemic sharpened the focus on the once largely dismissed area of chronic fatigue in health care, but misunderstandings and stigma persist.

Up to 4 million people are estimated to be out of work because of long COVID symptoms, according to a Brookings Institute report in August.

While long COVID is classified as a disability, qualifying for Social Security benefits requires proof that the condition has or will last a year, even though there's no test to diagnose long COVID, per CDC.

Transgendered Children

Across the United States, thousands of youths are lining up for gender-affirming care. But when families decide to take the medical route, they must make decisions about life-altering treatments that have little scientific evidence of their long-term safety and efficacy.

On the two-hour drive back from the hospital, Danielle Boyer kept replaying the doctor’s questions in her mind. Was her then-12-year-old child, Ryace, hearing voices? Was she using illegal drugs? Had she ever been hospitalized for psychiatric treatment? Had she ever harmed herself?

Danielle was still shaken when she and Ryace arrived home in this small town nestled in a bend of the Ohio River. Dinner would have to wait. She had to talk to her husband. “They were asking us these sad, terrible questions,” she told Steve Boyer as the two sat in their garage that August 2020 evening. “Do you know kids have tried to kill themselves?”

“I had no idea,” he said.  READ MORE...

Native American Mound Builders

NATIVE AMERICAN CULTURES IN THE REGION OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, CONSTRUCTED LARGE CHARACTERISTIC MOUND EARTHWORKS OVER A PERIOD OF MORE THAN 5,000 YEARS IN THE UNITED STATES.

19th century academics theorised that the Native Americans were too primitive to be associated with the mounds, instead, implying that they belonged to a lost culture that disappeared before the arrival of Columbus in 1492.

One of the earliest theories suggested that the mound builders were Norse in origin, who settled in the Americas and migrated south to become the Toltecs in Tula, Mexico. Later theories have connected them with descendants of the Israelites, the Ancient Egyptians, Welsh, Irish, Polynesians, Greeks, Chinese, Phoenicians, and even crossing into the realm of pseudo-science by implying an association with the lost continent of Atlantis.

Proper academic studies have shown that the mounds were built by Native American cultures over a period that spanned from around 3500 BC to the 16th century AD, that includes part of the Archaic Period (8000 to 1000 BC), Woodland Period (1000 BC to AD 1000) and the Mississippian Period (800 AD to 1600 AD).

One of the earliest mound complexes was built at Watson Brake in Louisiana around 3500 BC during the Archaic Period. The site was developed over centuries by a pre-agricultural, pre-ceramic, hunter-gatherer society, who occupied the site on a seasonal basis. The builders constructed an arrangement of eleven earthwork mounds around 7.6 metres in height, connected by ridges to form an oval shaped complex.  READ MORE...

Monkeypox Outbreak in US

On June 13, a man in New York began to feel ill.

"He starts to experience swollen lymph nodes and rectal discomfort," says epidemiologist Keletso Makofane, who's at Harvard University.

The man suspects he might have monkeypox. He's a scientist, and knowledgeable about the signs and symptoms, Makofane says. So the man goes to his doctor and asks for a monkeypox test. The doctor decides, instead, to test the man for common sexually transmitted diseases. All those come back negative.

"A few days later, the pain worsens," Makofane says. So he goes to the urgent care and again asks for a monkeypox test. This time, the provider prescribes him antibiotics for a bacterial infection.

"The pain becomes so bad, and starts to interfere with his sleep," Makofane says. "So this past Sunday, he goes to the emergency room of a big academic hospital in New York."

At this point the man has a growth inside his rectum, which is a symptom of monkeypox. At the hospital, he sees both an ER doctor and an infectious disease specialist. Again, the man asks for a monkeypox test. But the specialist rebuffs the request and says "a monkeypox test isn't indicated," Makofane says. Instead, the doctor speculates that the man might have colon cancer.  READ MORE...

The Space Plane

The X-37B looks like something our of a sci-fi movie. What is the plane’s actual mission? Was it designed to fight a space war against Russia or China? At first glance, you think you are looking at a miniature version of the space shuttle, but the X-37B is an unmanned and autonomous space plane with its own quirks and characteristics. 

The craft is also known as the Orbital Test Vehicle, and it has flown six missions since 2010. At only 29-feet long, the X-37B is just a fraction of the size of the space shuttle. It’s also boosted into space on a rocket, and it lands horizontally like an airplane. Let’s take a look at just why the United States needs such a curious spacecraft.

Most missions and their details are classified. Could it be used to take out enemy satellites? That question has been bandied about by space war analysts. But the U.S. military denies such offensive activities and claims the X-37B is for peaceful purposes as a technology and scientific testbed. 

For example, it could be trying out new tech for spy satellites and other types of orbiting vehicles. The X-37B could also be gathering data on vertical launch mechanisms for flight control and testing other space components.  READ MORE...

Starlink and Hawaiian Airlines

Under the terms of the agreement, Hawaiian Airlines will offer SpaceX's high-speed, low-latency broadband internet service to its guests free of charge onboard flights between the islands and the continental U.S, Asia and Oceania. (Hawaiian Airlines)

Under the terms of the agreement, Hawaiian Airlines will become the first major airline to offer Starlink's high-speed, low-latency broadband internet service to its guests free of charge onboard flights between the islands and the continental United States, Asia and Oceania.


Hawaiian Airlines offers approximately 130 daily flights within the Hawaiian Islands, daily nonstop flights between Hawaii and 16 U.S. gateway cities, and service connecting Honolulu and American Samoa, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and Tahiti.


Hawaii’s largest and longest-serving carrier will equip its Airbus A330 and A321neo aircraft, as well as an incoming fleet of Boeing 787-9s, with Starlink's service. Hawaiian does not currently plan to deploy Starlink on its Boeing 717 aircraft that operate short flights between the Hawaiian Islands.


Hawaiian and Starlink are in the initial stages of implementation and expect to begin installing the service on select aircraft next year.  READ MORE...

A Global Reopening

Two years after the US went into its first lockdown, the country is getting nearer to a pre-pandemic existence. But what about the rest of the world?

When California issued a statewide stay-at-home order on 19 March 2020, most people thought that life would return to normal relatively quickly.

A full 24 months later, people are finally starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, with restrictions being eased in the US and several other countries.

But with some places experiencing record numbers of cases yet again, it's clear that the pandemic isn't ready to let go its grip just yet.

We asked our correspondents in the UK, Hong Kong, South Africa, New Zealand, Canada, Peru and the US to give us a snapshot.

A very light touch - England
Nick Triggle, London


England's last remaining Covid restriction - the legal requirement to isolate after a positive test - was lifted at the end of February.

It came a month after the government lifted the requirement to wear masks in places such as shops and on public transport and the advice to work from home where possible.

But the truth is England has had a pretty light-touch approach to regulations compared to many places since the summer.

The masks mandate and working from home advice was only reintroduced in late 2021 as the Omicron variant took off.

The approach is based on the fact that vaccines are providing great protection and England has seen very good uptake among those groups most at risk - 95% of over-60s have had a booster jab.

It has meant that despite the surge in infections caused by the Omicron variant, the number of people dying has been similar to what would normally be seen during a normal winter.

There are signs infections may be starting to climb again, but it is causing little concern at the moment.  

TO READ MORE ABOUT COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD, CLICK HERE...

A Pacific NATO

Bloomberg News
China warned the U.S. against trying to build what it called a Pacific version of NATO, while declaring that security disputes over Taiwan and Ukraine were “not comparable at all.”

Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his annual news briefing Monday that the “real goal” of the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific strategy was to form Asia’s answer to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. China has often accused the U.S. of trying to form blocs to suppress its growth, a complaint that’s likely to attract greater attention after President Vladimir Putin cited similar grievances before his invasion of Ukraine.

“The perverse actions run counter to the common aspiration of the region for peace, development, cooperation and win-win outcomes,” Wang added. “They are doomed to fail.”

Complaints about U.S. efforts to strengthen its alliance network in Asia were among several points of contention raised by Wang in the almost two-hour briefing on the sidelines of the National People’s Congress in Beijing. The senior diplomat repeatedly alluded to the U.S. as the source of problems with countries around the globe and issued some of China’s most pointed warnings yet against calls to expand U.S. ties with Taiwan.

“This would not only push Taiwan into a precarious situation, but will also bring unbearable consequences for the U.S. side,” Wang said on the sidelines of the National People’s Congress in Beijing, later adding: “Taiwan will eventually return to the embrace of the motherland.”  READ MORE...

Challenge For China

Hours before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in eastern Ukraine, the US accused Moscow and Beijing of combining to create a "profoundly illiberal" world order.

The Ukraine-Russia crisis is posing a major challenge for China on many fronts.

The ever-closer diplomatic relationship between Russia and China could be seen at the Winter Games with Mr Putin coming to Beijing as one of only a handful of known world leaders to attend.

Significantly, Mr Putin waited until just after the Games were over to recognise the two breakaway regions of Ukraine and send in troops to back them.

In its public pronouncements, the Chinese government has urged all sides to de-escalate tensions in Ukraine.


But now that Russia has dispensed with all such restraint, where does that leave China's official position as clashes escalate?

The Chinese government thinks it cannot be seen to support war in Europe but also wants to strengthen military and strategic ties with Moscow.

Ukraine's number one trading partner is China and Beijing would ideally like to maintain good relations with Kyiv but this could be difficult to sustain when it is clearly so closely aligned with the government which is sending its troops into Ukrainian territory.

There is also the potential for trade blowback on China from Western Europe if it is judged to be backing Russia's aggression.

A shift in China's foreign policy?

Furthermore, a constant refrain from China's leaders is that it does not interfere in the internal affairs of others and that other countries should not interfere in its internal affairs.

But last week, in a surprising move, China abstained from a UN Security Council vote condemning the invasion of Ukraine.

Some analysts had expected Beijing to join Russia in voting against the motion, but the fact that it did not has been described as a "win for the west" - and is a sign of Beijing's non-interference.

China however, is still far from condemning the situation, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin refusing to refer to what is happening there as an "invasion".

There are also unconfirmed reports that Beijing had been aware of the situation and had deliberately turned a blind eye.

According to a New York Times report citing unidentified US officials, the US had over the past months repeatedly urged China to intervene and tell Russia not to invade Ukraine.

However, the report adds that officials later found out that Beijing had shared this information with Moscow, saying the US was trying to sow discord and that China would not try to impede Russian plans.  READ MORE...

Nuclear Forces on High Alert

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — In a dramatic escalation of East-West tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces put on high alert Sunday in response to what he called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers.

The order means Putin wants Russia’s nuclear weapons prepared for increased readiness to launch and raises the threat that Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s response to it could boil over into nuclear warfare.

Amid the worrying development, the office of Ukraine’s president said a delegation would meet with Russian officials as Moscow’s troops drew closer to Kyiv.

Putin, in giving the nuclear alert directive, cited not only the alleged statements by NATO members but the hard-hitting financial sanctions imposed by the West against Russia, including the Russian leader himself.

Speaking at a meeting with his top officials, Putin told his defense minister and the chief of the military’s General Staff to put the nuclear deterrent forces in a “special regime of combat duty.”

“Western countries aren’t only taking unfriendly actions against our country in the economic sphere, but top officials from leading NATO members made aggressive statements regarding our country,” Putin said in televised comments.

Putin threatened in the days before Russia’s invasion to retaliate harshly against any nations that intervened directly in the conflict in Ukraine, and he specifically raised the specter of his country’s status as a nuclear power.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations responded to the news from Moscow while appearing on a Sunday news program.

“President Putin is continuing to escalate this war in a manner that is totally unacceptable,” Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said. “And we have to continue to condemn his actions in the most strong, strongest possible way.”

The practical meaning of Putin’s order was not immediately clear. Russia and the United States typically have the land- and submarine-based segments of their strategic nuclear forces on alert and prepared for combat at all times, but nuclear-capable bombers and other aircraft are not.

If Putin is arming or otherwise raising the nuclear combat readiness of his bombers, or if he is ordering more ballistic missile submarines to sea, then the United States might feel compelled to respond in kind, according to Hans Kristensen, a nuclear analyst at the Federation of American Scientists. That would mark a worrisome escalation and a potential crisis, he said.  READ MORE...

NATO Doesn't Want Ukraine

A distinct irony hovers over the standoff over Ukraine. A principal goal of President Vladimir Putin’s threat of invasion is to ensure Ukraine does not join NATO, which would grant Ukraine the protection of the alliance’s mutual-defense pact. But even if Russia had not poised troops on its borders, there was no realistic prospect in the near-to-medium term that the United States and its allies would accept Ukraine into their ranks. In a sense, both sides agree — Ukrainian leaders aside — that the nation does not currently belong in the Western alliance.

Clearly, NATO cannot, in response to Putin’s demands and threats, unconditionally promise to deny Ukraine membership forever. Still, the starting point for diplomacy should be the following: There is no way Ukraine will join NATO In the foreseeable future. The United States and its allies don’t want the security commitments that would involve; some NATO members have always been against it; and for Russia, the idea is threatening enough to become its main argument for invading now.

If we can devise a different way to ensure Ukraine’s security, membership may never be needed — as we should indicate to Moscow now.

Acknowledging that reality does not mean abandoning resolution in opposing Russian sabre rattling. If anything, to strengthen our deterrent, the threat of severe and lasting economic punishment if Russia attacks Ukraine should be intensified. Potential retaliation could include a serious U.S.-European Union-NATO plan to wean the West off Russian oil and gas over the next five years (for example, by expanding U.S. production and using NATO infrastructure funds and other resources to build more liquid natural gas terminals in western Europe.) President Biden has proposed shutting down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline linking Germany and Russia if Russia invades, but dismantling it fully would be an even stronger response.

Nonetheless, if the prospect of Ukraine in NATO is taken off the table — albeit not formally, or forever (not yet at least) — the focus of diplomacy can return to resolving the dispute over the two breakaway regions in Ukraine’s east, which Russia seeks to control.