A Society Too Complex to Survive

Homo sapiens evolved as a separate species about 300,000 years ago. Measured in generations (with each generation lasting 20 years), that means there are about 15,000 great-great-etc. grandparents separating you from the earliest human ancestors. 

While that’s a remarkable fact in itself, what’s really remarkable is how the world each of those generations experienced was remarkably static. Of course, there were natural disasters and wars. In general, however, the “techno-social” universe your 9,045th great-grandparent lived in was not very different from the one your 9,046th one inhabited. The same holds true for the vast majority of generations after them.  READ MORE...

How Civilization Started

The dawn of human civilization is often pinned down to the rise of farming. As food production grew, so did human populations, trade, and tax.

Or so the prevailing story goes.

Economists have now put forward a competing hypothesis, and it suggests a surplus of food on its own was not enough to drive the transition from hunter-gatherer societies to the hierarchical states that eventually led to civilization as we know it.

Instead, multiple data sets covering several thousand years show this reigning theory is empirically flawed.

Even when some parts of the world adopted farming and began producing a surplus of food, it did not necessarily lead to complex hierarchies or tax-levied states.

Only when humans began farming food that could be stored, divvied up, traded, and taxed, did social structures begin to take shape.

That's probably why cereal grains like wheat, barley, and rice – rather than taro, yams, or potatoes – are at the root of virtually all classical civilizations. If the land was capable of cultivating grains, evidence shows it was much more likely to host complex societal structures.

"The relative ease of confiscating stored cereals, their high energy density, and their durability enhances their appropriability, thereby facilitating the emergence of tax-levying elites," the authors of the hypothesis write.

"Roots and tubers, in contrast, are typically perennial and do not have to be reaped in a particular period, but once harvested are rather perishable."

In parts of South America, for instance, perennial root crops like cassava can be harvested all year round. Unfortunately, however, cassava rots easily and is difficult to transport.  READ MORE...

Macro Trends 2020-2030

We outline 12 macrotrends set to shape the 2020s. These represent major shifts in the demographic, environmental, economic, technological, political and cultural landscapes that can be foreseen with a relatively high degree of certainty, though their implications are often more uncertain or ambiguous. We then focus in on a subset of the macrotrends to explore this ambiguity and suggest how the global business community might seek to influence the way these trends play out in order to accelerate progress on Vision 2050. Crucially, too, all the macrotrends are interconnected: how they interact with one another is central to how the next decade will play out. We explore some of these interconnections briefly in the introduction to each landscape.

Macrotrends emerging over the next decade: 

DEMOGRAPHICS 

1. GENERATIONAL HANDOVER Political, economic, cultural & innovation power is shifting. 

2. POPULATION GROWTH IN ASIA & AFRICA Sustaining geopolitical shifts and straining scarce resources. ENVIRONMENT 

3. WORSENING CLIMATE IMPACTS More frequent and more severe weather becomes harder to ignore. 

4. LOCAL POLLUTION, DEGRADATION & SCARCITY CREATE IMPETUS FOR INNOVATION Loss, suffering, instability, displacement & innovation. 

ECONOMY 

5. SHORT-TERM CRISIS, LONG-TERM SLOWDOWN Under-investment, low productivity, weak demand and COVID-19. 

6. PEAK GLOBALIZATION & THE RISE OF ASIA Rival blocs form as economic and political power pivots. 

TECHNOLOGY 

7. AUTOMATION IMPACTS EVERY INDUSTRY & COUNTRY Automation changes lives, industries and economies. 

8. DATAFICATION, FOR BETTER & WORSE Smarter, more efficient, more surveilled – massive efficiency and productivity gains come at a price. 

POLITICS 

9. POLARIZATION & RADICALISM ON THE RISE High levels of dissatisfaction create appetite for radical alternatives 

10. GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY Weakened multilateralism and nations in decline – the incentives for stability slowly fade away. 

CULTURE 

11. POST-MATERIALISM: ATTITUDES AND LIFESTYLES DIVERGE Changing aspirations are helping on-demand service models to spread globally. 

12. CULTURE WARS ESCALATE Cultural clashes (youngold, rural-urban, rich-poor) contribute to polarization.

We propose 10 “wildcard” disruptions that could plausibly materialize during the 2020s, resulting in significant impact. Indeed some of them already have, with impacts still snowballing. However, the wildcards are not all negative – they simply have the potential to significant disrupt the landscape that business operates in. The macrotrends and disruptions are deliberately not presented as risks and opportunities. Every risk contains the seed of an opportunity within it – and every opportunity the seed of a new risk. What matters is how we respond to and influence the dynamics of the world around us.

Potential “wild card” Disruptions

1. FINANCIAL CRISIS How much will COVID19 cost, and how will we pay when the next crisis comes? 
2. GLOBAL PANDEMIC No country is fully prepared to handle a pandemic, and neither are any economies. 
3. MAJOR CONFLICT Cyber attacks, e.g. on critical infrastructure will touch all ordinary citizens in a conflict.
4. AN ECONOMIC “SINGULARITY” What happens when new jobs can’t be created where jobs have been destroyed?
5. POPULAR REVOLTS & REGIME CHANGE Inequality will continue to rise making more frequent and severe protest likely.
6. A CLIMATE “MINSKY MOMENT” Costs, disclosures, social pressures all reorient financial flows – but how fast?
7. ENERGY TRANSITION TIPPING POINT Market forces lead to fossil fuel demand peaking and the energy transition accelerates.
8. BIOTECH BOOM Disruption comes to food, health and materials as biotech’s potential emerges. 
9. GLOBAL GREEN (NEW) DEAL Citizens embrace the chance to improve jobs, communities and environments.
10. SOCIETAL “TECHLASH” Society sours on the costs of free tech, treasuries tire of lost taxes and competition.

TO READ MORE ABOUT THESE MEGATRENDS, CLICK HERE...