We outline 12 macrotrends set to shape the 2020s. These represent major shifts in the demographic, environmental, economic, technological, political and cultural landscapes that can be foreseen with a relatively high degree of certainty, though their implications are often more uncertain or ambiguous. We then focus in on a subset of the macrotrends to explore this ambiguity and suggest how the global business community might seek to influence the way these trends play out in order to accelerate progress on Vision 2050. Crucially, too, all the macrotrends are interconnected: how they interact with one another is central to how the next decade will play out. We explore some of these interconnections briefly in the introduction to each landscape. Macrotrends emerging over the next decade:
DEMOGRAPHICS
1. GENERATIONAL HANDOVER Political, economic, cultural & innovation power is shifting.
2. POPULATION GROWTH IN ASIA & AFRICA Sustaining geopolitical shifts and straining scarce resources. ENVIRONMENT
3. WORSENING CLIMATE IMPACTS More frequent and more severe weather becomes harder to ignore.
4. LOCAL POLLUTION, DEGRADATION & SCARCITY CREATE IMPETUS FOR INNOVATION Loss, suffering, instability, displacement & innovation.
ECONOMY
5. SHORT-TERM CRISIS, LONG-TERM SLOWDOWN Under-investment, low productivity, weak demand and COVID-19.
6. PEAK GLOBALIZATION & THE RISE OF ASIA Rival blocs form as economic and political power pivots.
TECHNOLOGY
7. AUTOMATION IMPACTS EVERY INDUSTRY & COUNTRY Automation changes lives, industries and economies.
8. DATAFICATION, FOR BETTER & WORSE Smarter, more efficient, more surveilled – massive efficiency and productivity gains come at a price.
POLITICS
9. POLARIZATION & RADICALISM ON THE RISE High levels of dissatisfaction create appetite for radical alternatives
10. GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY Weakened multilateralism and nations in decline – the incentives for stability slowly fade away.
CULTURE
11. POST-MATERIALISM: ATTITUDES AND LIFESTYLES DIVERGE Changing aspirations are helping on-demand service models to spread globally.
12. CULTURE WARS ESCALATE Cultural clashes (youngold, rural-urban, rich-poor) contribute to polarization.
We propose 10 “wildcard” disruptions that could plausibly materialize during the 2020s, resulting in significant impact. Indeed some of them already have, with impacts still snowballing. However, the wildcards are not all negative – they simply have the potential to significant disrupt the landscape that business operates in. The macrotrends and disruptions are deliberately not presented as risks and opportunities. Every risk contains the seed of an opportunity within it – and every opportunity the seed of a new risk. What matters is how we respond to and influence the dynamics of the world around us.
Potential “wild card” Disruptions
- FINANCIAL CRISIS How much will COVID19 cost, and how will we pay when the next crisis comes?
- GLOBAL PANDEMIC No country is fully prepared to handle a pandemic, and neither are any economies.
- MAJOR CONFLICT Cyber attacks, e.g. on critical infrastructure will touch all ordinary citizens in a conflict.
- AN ECONOMIC “SINGULARITY” What happens when new jobs can’t be created where jobs have been destroyed?
- POPULAR REVOLTS & REGIME CHANGE Inequality will continue to rise making more frequent and severe protest likely.
- A CLIMATE “MINSKY MOMENT” Costs, disclosures, social pressures all reorient financial flows – but how fast?
- ENERGY TRANSITION TIPPING POINT Market forces lead to fossil fuel demand peaking and the energy transition accelerates.
- BIOTECH BOOM Disruption comes to food, health and materials as biotech’s potential emerges.
- GLOBAL GREEN (NEW) DEAL Citizens embrace the chance to improve jobs, communities and environments.
- SOCIETAL “TECHLASH” Society sours on the costs of free tech, treasuries tire of lost taxes and competition.
