Democrats Brace For the Fall

It's a small comfort to Democrats who are watching their GOP foes measure drapes, plan policy strategies and plot ways to get back at Democrats who kicked Republicans off of legislative committees. But despite the very grim outlook for Democrats in the fall midterms, it could have been much, much worse for the party.

Virtually no one in either party talks with a straight face about the possibility that the Democrats will retain their narrow majority in the House. Historical trends, combined with the dampening effect of an unpopular Democratic president, mean the question is not so much whether Republicans will reclaim the majority in the House, but how big their gains will be.

But recent developments mean Democrats aren't as likely to face the political apocalypse threatening them last year.

Redistricting – which could have delivered a death blow to Democrats for a decade, given the fact that there are more GOP-controlled state legislatures than Democratic-run ones – has turned out to be largely a wash. Legal challenges of maps in Ohio and North Carolina could limit GOP gains in those states, while a recent court ruling ordering Alabama to create another majority-minority seat could give Democrats a chance at a pickup.

Far more House Democrats (28) than Republicans (13) have announced their retirements or plans to run for other office, a sign that Democrats believe they will be in the minority next year. But the vast majority of those seats are not in highly competitive districts, providing Republicans with fewer chances to flip the seats.


"I think Democrats are happy – well, maybe not happy, but relieved," says Stu Rothenberg, a veteran political analyst and author of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Report. "It doesn't change the fundamentals of a midterm cycle, particularly with a president whose approval rating sits at 40-44%. But the Democrats are relieved that the worst-case scenario didn't occur," Rothenberg says. "Some of them are really surprised they did as well as they did."


The party of the president in power tends to lose seats in the midterm, with exceptions occurring just three times since 1910. President Joe Biden's low approval ratings also hurt down-ticket candidates, Rothenberg notes, especially since Biden is facing criticism from both the progressive and centrist wings of his party.  READ MORE...