MidTerm Rankings

A little more than two weeks stand between now and Election Day, and it’s likely going to come down to the wire as Republicans and Democrats duke it out for Senate supremacy.

The two sides are fresh off of third-quarter fundraising releases and squarely in the middle of debate season, with Republicans starting to feel that the economic tide has turned in their favor at exactly the right moment.

On the Democratic side, abortion remains the hallmark issue that candidates are messaging on far and wide in order to help keep control of the upper chamber.

Here’s a look at the seven Senate seats most likely to flip next month:

Click Here...  to see those results...

Black Democratic Women

FILE – A woman presents her identification to vote through a plexiglass barrier, to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, on election day at the Matin Luther King, Jr. Elementary School, in the Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans on Nov. 3, 2020. 

Louisiana’s secretary of state and attorney general asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday, June 17, 2022, to put a hold on a federal judge’s order for the state to create a second majority Black congressional district by Monday.

Advocates are calling on Democrats to step up their messaging on voting rights and abortion to Black women specifically, arguing it is clackritical that the party turn out the key constituency to hold on to majorities in the Senate and House.

State laws curbing abortion rights and the ability to easily vote disproportionately affect Black women, making both salient issues to energize a powerful voting bloc for Democrats.

But part of the problem, advocates say, is that Democrats are taking Black women’s votes for granted.  READ MORE...

Democrats Brace For the Fall

It's a small comfort to Democrats who are watching their GOP foes measure drapes, plan policy strategies and plot ways to get back at Democrats who kicked Republicans off of legislative committees. But despite the very grim outlook for Democrats in the fall midterms, it could have been much, much worse for the party.

Virtually no one in either party talks with a straight face about the possibility that the Democrats will retain their narrow majority in the House. Historical trends, combined with the dampening effect of an unpopular Democratic president, mean the question is not so much whether Republicans will reclaim the majority in the House, but how big their gains will be.

But recent developments mean Democrats aren't as likely to face the political apocalypse threatening them last year.

Redistricting – which could have delivered a death blow to Democrats for a decade, given the fact that there are more GOP-controlled state legislatures than Democratic-run ones – has turned out to be largely a wash. Legal challenges of maps in Ohio and North Carolina could limit GOP gains in those states, while a recent court ruling ordering Alabama to create another majority-minority seat could give Democrats a chance at a pickup.

Far more House Democrats (28) than Republicans (13) have announced their retirements or plans to run for other office, a sign that Democrats believe they will be in the minority next year. But the vast majority of those seats are not in highly competitive districts, providing Republicans with fewer chances to flip the seats.


"I think Democrats are happy – well, maybe not happy, but relieved," says Stu Rothenberg, a veteran political analyst and author of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Report. "It doesn't change the fundamentals of a midterm cycle, particularly with a president whose approval rating sits at 40-44%. But the Democrats are relieved that the worst-case scenario didn't occur," Rothenberg says. "Some of them are really surprised they did as well as they did."


The party of the president in power tends to lose seats in the midterm, with exceptions occurring just three times since 1910. President Joe Biden's low approval ratings also hurt down-ticket candidates, Rothenberg notes, especially since Biden is facing criticism from both the progressive and centrist wings of his party.  READ MORE...