Showing posts with label economic forecasting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic forecasting. Show all posts

Monday, November 30

Dead Reckoning

DEAD RECKONING is the navigational process of calculating
current position of some moving object by using a previously determined position, or fix, by using estimations of speed, heading direction and course over elapsed time.

ADVANTAGE:  it can be a highly accurate way of moving from one point to another if done carefully over short distances, even where few external cues are present to guide the movements.


In other words, we can forecast where we might be in 3 months by using the clues and cues of where we are now which has been determined by dead reckoning, but, if we were to push farther out into the future and even if our forecasted predictions were based and predicated upon the past for the last 20-50 years, there is still no guarantees that they will continue in the same direction forward unless the future has already been PREORDAINED or PREDETERMINED which we all know is simply not possible at all...  given our current levels of knowledge and technologies...  however, is that really true?

The speed of light is very fast and it takes about 8.5 minutes for sunlight to reach the earth... so, the light of our present is really from the sun's past.  And if, we were living on the sun, the earth would be 8.5 minutes ahead of us...  therefore, we could see into our future...  however, at this moment living on the sun is theoretically impossible and probably highly improbable given how hot it is.

But, the concept of seeing into our future is theoretically possible...  so, our future can be seen as being preordained and/or predetermined...  it is just that we are not in a position to take advantage of that.  Yet, if we could, then it would also be possible to see into our future more than 3 months, possibly more than 3 years, highly likely more than 3 decades, and quite feasible more than 3 centuries or more.

RIGHT NOW:  we are simply in a position where all we can do is make predictions like:

1.  China using its military and economy one day to control the world

2.  North Korea becoming a nuclear power and using it against South Korea and Japan

3.  Russia reclaiming all those countries that the USSR lost once its government dissolved

4.  Larger cities like SEATTLE, WA increasing and sustaining waves of crime and violence now that police department have been defunded

5.  Our country bordering on financial collapse (or printing up more money) due to the wealthy hiding their money so that it cannot be taxes to pay for everything

6.  Changing our government from being a Democratic Republic to that of a Socialist Nation

7.  To seeing race wars spread like wildfire across the continent when in reality they are wars between the wealthy and those who live in or close to poverty

Monday, May 18

Economic Forecasting

According to a report from FOX NEWS this morning, our economy will not completely rebound from the COVID-19 Pandemic until the END OF 2021... that's almost 20 months from now...  much can happen during the next 20 months...  and, if it takes these next 20 months, many of our financial investments will become substantially damaged even when and after the economy does, in fact, rebound.

During my working career, I never much gave a rat's ass to whether investment increased or decreased as I was just concerned about my own salary and how much money I was able to save...  and, while that may seem very narrow minded on my behalf, the money I saved never made it into the stock market...   I based all my goals on non-interest bearing accounts which always meant that they would always do a little bit better than my predictions.

Now that I am taking money out of my accounts, I still do not plan for interest earned, but on a simple reduction of the funds and how long those funds will last.  Interest will only delay the inevitable...  that is to say, the depletion of the account.

Right now, those monies will pay our bills until both of us have reached the age of 97 regardless of the interest earned...  so, economic forecasting is of minimal concern to us and our livelihood.

Tuesday, April 7

Computer Modeling

Computer modelling consists of writing a computer program version of a mathematical model for a physical or biological system. Computer simulations that are run according to such programs can produce knowledge out of reach of mathematical analysis or natural experimentation.


For example, computer modeling is used in:
  • tracking hurricanes
  • population growth
  • stock growth
  • economic forecasting
Currently, computer modeling is being used to make predictions about COVID-19 progress which is not just impacting the USA but every single country in the world...  thanks to CHINA...